The political landscape can shift dramatically in just one week, altering the fortunes of an individual from underdog to frontrunner. A prime example is Florida’s Senator Rick Scott, who was initially a distant third in the race to succeed Mitch McConnell as Senate Majority Leader. However, with the backing of President-elect Donald Trump and numerous party leaders, he has now emerged as the favorite to take McConnell’s place, according to oddsmakers.
On Monday, the online betting platform Polymarket listed Scott with a 62 percent probability of becoming the next majority leader. South Dakota Senator John Thune followed him at 34 percent, and Texas Senator John Cornyn was next in line with a 5 percent chance.
Kalshi, a prediction market, assigned Scott a 59% chance of securing the nomination, with Thune at 39% and Cornyn at 8%. On Saturday, Scott shared a letter on X, previously known as Twitter, which he had addressed to his Republican colleagues in May. This letter declared his intention to run for the position currently held by McConnell, who is the longest-tenured party leader in Senate history.
“I believe that our voters want us to use this leadership election to make a choice to upend the status quo in Washington,” Scott wrote. “If you also believe this to be true and want a leader dedicated to that principle, I would be honored to have the opportunity to earn your support.
Senate Republicans are scheduled to convene on Wednesday for a closed-door, secret ballot vote. While Scott may be the favorite, the outcome of a secret ballot is unpredictable. It’s quite possible that multiple rounds of voting will be necessary to resolve the matter and determine if Scott indeed comes out as the victor.
